The risk map for global shipping darkened sharply this week, just as the Golden Week capacity cuts arrived. On September 9, United States forces sank five Iranian government tankers in the Gulf of Oman near Kharg Island under a tanker-for-tanker policy, and Iran retaliated with attacks on ten commercial vessels around the Strait of Hormuz — the largest single-day attack on shipping since the conflict began six months ago (Hellenic Shipping News, Reuters). Brent crude broke above USD 102 per barrel in trading on September 11, war-risk premiums climbed again, and visible transits through the strait collapsed to single digits per day. Against that backdrop the Drewry World Container Index held steady for a second straight week at USD 4,476 per 40 ft (September 10), while carriers locked in more than 18 blank sailings ahead of the October 1-8 Golden Week factory closure. Here is what the data says and how shippers moving cargo from China to Bangladesh, Israel, Africa and the Middle East should respond.
Spot indices barely moved even as geopolitics deteriorated — the divergence between freight prices and freight risk is the defining feature of this week:
| Benchmark (period) | Reading | Weekly Move |
|---|---|---|
| Drewry WCI composite (Sep 10) | USD 4,476 / 40 ft | flat (2nd straight week) |
| Drewry Shanghai → Los Angeles | USD 7,352 / 40 ft | **+2%** |
| Drewry Shanghai → New York | USD 9,726 / 40 ft | **+1%** |
| Drewry Shanghai → Rotterdam | USD 3,997 / 40 ft | -2% |
| Drewry Shanghai → Genoa | USD 4,216 / 40 ft | -3% |
| SCFI composite (Sep 4) | 3,590.05 points | **+2.3%** (6th weekly gain) |
| SCFI Far East → Middle East | USD 6,135 / TEU | broadly flat |
The transpacific keeps firming on Golden Week capacity cuts — Drewry counts eight blank sailings announced for next week, up from seven — while Asia-Europe drifts lower as the selective Suez return restores effective capacity; Drewry expects just three blank sailings on that lane next week, up from one. One quieter positive: congestion at Shanghai improved from 94 hours of average berth wait in Week 35 to 64 hours in Week 36 (Drewry), even though waits of 7 to 11 days persist at some Shanghai terminals and Linerlytica still counts over 4.3 million TEU of capacity stuck at ports worldwide, above the pandemic peak.
The numbers around the strait are stark. Commodity shipping data provider Kpler counted only six commodity vessels transiting on September 8, down from nine the day before and against a ten-day average of roughly twelve; before the conflict began in late February, about 178 ships passed through daily. London marine insurers including Marsh and WTW confirm that war-risk premiums for Hormuz transits now run at up to 6 percent of hull value — USD 6 million on a USD 100 million tanker — versus less than 0.1 percent before the fighting started, and cargo war-risk cover has reached 5 to 6 percent of cargo value on Gulf routings. Kuwait has started ship-to-ship transfers outside the strait to keep crude moving, and the IRGC has declared a maritime restriction zone extending from Chabahar through the Gulf of Oman into the Arabian Sea.
For container shipping the direct hit is limited — most Asia-Gulf container loops call at Jebel Ali and Gulf ports outside the immediate exchange zone — but the knock-on effects are real: bunker costs are surging with Brent near USD 102 and WTI near USD 96, and carriers are pushing the increase into surcharges. ONE has announced a peak season surcharge on Far East to US West Coast cargo of USD 1,450 per 20 ft and USD 2,000 per 40 ft effective September 11; MSC follows on Far East to US East Coast with USD 149/297 from September 12; and Maersk has filed a USD 8,000 per container surcharge on Middle East to US West Coast traffic from September 21.
With the October 1-8 factory shutdown approaching, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and MSC have together withdrawn at least 18 sailings between late September and mid-October:
Carriers say alternative voyages will preserve coverage, but history says rollover risk spikes in the last fortnight of September. Bangladesh, Israel and Africa-bound cargo feels this as compressed feeder connections, tighter LCL consolidation windows and longer waits at Colombo, Singapore and Port Said transshipment hubs.
The Panama Canal Authority is reducing daily transits from 34 to 32 from September 15, keeping Neo-Panamax slots at just 9 per day, although a planned draft reduction for Neopanamax vessels has been postponed. There is also a policy deadline to watch: the United States Trade Representative port fee on China-built vessels calling at US ports takes effect on October 14, with charges up to USD 1.5 million per call, while China has applied its own special port dues since April — a cost layer that will increasingly shape transpacific service networks and rates into the fourth quarter. On the Africa side, CMA CGM has introduced a EUR 100 per TEU congestion surcharge at Tema in Ghana plus a EUR 100 (USD 115) reefer peak season surcharge on West Africa — an early signal that end-October programme changes are being priced in there too.
Spider Logistics tracks war-risk zones, blank-sailing programmes and lane-level rates daily and confirms the all-in cost for each destination before you book — China to Bangladesh, Israel, the Middle East and Africa, by sea or air, with customs clearance and door delivery included.
Tags: Strait of Hormuz | Golden Week | Blank Sailings | Drewry WCI | Container Shipping Rates | Panama Canal | China to Bangladesh | Middle East Freight | Industry Insights